Evil Verses Stupidity

Updated version with missing Telluride waste water graph!

This week’s war between Hamas and Israel has made it manifestly clear that we need to focus on things are truly important, and deprioritize lesser concerns. COVID was never an existential threat for humanity, or any race, ethnicity, country, sex or other demographic. It was a serious threat, which brought its burden of death and misery—misery sometimes compounded by hysteria and over-reaching governmental response—but it was not even remotely in the league of the Bubonic Plague, the 1918 Influenza, Smallpox or Typhoid epidemics. COVID eventually revealed itself on a population level as a nuisance virus, a killer primarily of the old, the sick and infirm, and of course those at high risk who chose not to be vaccinated. Many, many humans choose risky behaviors, don’t we? Taking drugs we know are addictive, drinking at all or far worse then driving, skiing, climbing, parachuting, diving, riding motorcycles, not exercising, eating things we know are unhealthy, having sex with anonymous strangers, walking around in large US cities at night, the list is endless. Perhaps none of these make sense to the outside observer as a source of enjoyment, but then we don’t get to live inside anybody else’s head, and commune with their dopamine receptors.

Here is the updated COVID picture for those still interested. Nationwide, hospitalizations have begun to fall, however various areas of the country are still seeing an increase. As I predicted, this surge is running out of steam after reaching 20,000 hospitalizations per week. The fact that deaths are continuing to increase is of course the usual pattern after a surge peaks, and they will begin to level off then fall in the next 2-3 weeks. COVID deaths have gone from less than 1% of total deaths in June to 3.8% of deaths recently. Although predicting surge timing is always uncertain, look for the usual cold weather/holiday COVID peak in January.

As fully anticipated, a brand new COVID variant has appeared on the scene and is making a run for top dog. HV.1 is showing signs of being the most rapidly increasing variant, and is neck and neck with EG.5–while the variant which was the basis of the new vaccine formula XBB.1.5 is predictably nearly extinct. The following graphs demonstrate the relative growth and decline of these variants.

The Demise of XBB.1.5

The rapid growth of HV.1

Here is the rise of the stealth variant you probably haven’t heard of, HV.1. (Looks a lot like HIV1, but don’t be fooled, that’s just a conspiracy theory waiting to happen). I won’t bore you with the mutations separating HV.1 from earlier variants, suffice it to say that it’s a direct descendent of EG.5, and likely to be a Slim Weiner (who isn’t tired of Nothing Burger at this point?) as shown in the viral genealogy chart below. Why it is coming on so quickly among the mix of COVID variants is anyone’s guess at this point, since we don’t have any data yet on antibody escape. I’m sure that some AI program would give an impressive, authoritative sounding answer, but remember when it comes to AI, the old adage of “garbage in and garbage out” still prevails. The short answer is simply that it’s evolution’s inevitable way of making sure the virus continues to propagate; to infect you, to make you into a factory for producing more HV.1 and passing it on—whether you’re vaccinated or previously infected. The process is purely mathematical, and has no interest whatsoever in whether the virus makes you sick at all, mildly sick or dead. It is the entire history and essence of life since molecules began to replicate themselves. Below is the Ancestry.com of HV.1.

The following graph, courtesy of Greg Craig, my colleague in waste water sleuthing, shows our tiny town of Telluride Colorado making a run for highest level of waste water COVID in the state. This is a phenomena which we observed early on as we began to monitor the waste water as a guide to community levels of the virus. When variants began to appear, it became manifestly clear that destination mountain ski towns were again early disseminators of the new viral mutants. This didn’t escape the notice of astute observers, and the phenomena is explored in an excellent article on Medium by Don G. McNeil Jr. from January 2022 entitled, “Once Again, the Virus Is Being Spread By an Unusual Vector: Skiers”. https://donaldgmacneiljr1954.medium.com

Now I’m about to veer off the tracks of Science and into the realm of Ethics and Philosophy. The title of today’s installment announced I was prepared to discuss something about which I have no more expertise than the next well meaning or malignant voice you may encounter. There are situations where logical discourse can eclipse a mass of factual knowledge, so here goes. The horrendous massacre of innocent people committed by Hamas this week, and the unbelievable responses of large numbers of people seeking to either ignore, justify, condone or celebrate it, has made me reflect on the difference between Evil and Stupidity. Great philosophers have tried to define Good and Evil, but the huge number of people celebrating the recent Hamas attack lead me to conclude that there are two possibilities. Perhaps the concept of Evil is so nebulous, fungible and hard to define that very large portions of humanity have completely different understandings of what it is, and how to recognize it. The other alternative is that despite differences in time, place, tribe, and historical context, Evil is pretty easily recognized, and that a large sample of humanity is indifferent to it or embraces it. The second option may well be the truth, but for the sake of argument I’ll go with the supposition that Evil is basically completely subjective. After all, how can you measure Evil if you can’t have a consensus on what it is. (If you’re yawning now I understand, but bare with me for a minute). Stupidity on the other hand has a pretty reliable measure in outcome. Think of, “Jackass: the Movie” for example. Was it smart in WWII for Germany to simultaneously make war on all of Europe (ok ignore the bumbling Italian sidekicks), Britain, Russia and the US? The outcome answers the question. How about Japan’s sneak attack on the Pearl Harbor? It’s very mastermind Yamamoto knew the answer, and after the attack wrote to his imperial masters, “We may run rampant for a year or so, but I fear we have awakened a sleeping bear who may destroy us”. In that vein let’s look at Hamas’ attack on Israel. Ignoring their barbarism, which is an affront to most people’s sense of humanity—was it smart to attack a foe who not only has complete military superiority, but also has the means to totally cut off your entire supply chain of food, water, fuel, everything? No, it was the very definition of Stupidity. What does history teach us about the consequences of this level of Stupidity? Enemies may have prolonged conflicts: skirmishes, wars, economic pressure, etc; with each episode ending in some agreed upon accommodation. But pass a certain threshold which triggers a sense of impending existential destruction, and the rules of engagement instantly change. That changed for Nazi Germany where we intentionally destroyed entire cities (because the populace had supported the rise of the regime), and certainly for Japan where it took the fire bombing of Tokyo, and the vaporization of two major cities to force the total and permanent surrender of a population who had been conditioned to worship the regime above all else. “And so it goes”. While it looks like there is profound disagreement about its Evil, Hamas’ level of Stupidity will be easily measured and it’s result recorded by both sides.

Finally there have been some conspiracy theories circulating on the internet which the staff here at “Clear and Present Thinking” have submitted to fact checking.

1. Donald Trump took a major long position in Clorox stock right before suggesting, “Since bleach kills the virus, maybe we could try something like that as a treatment.” Fact check: This is totally false. Verdict: there was no Evil intent, just Stupidity.

2. Joe Biden handed 6 Billion dollars to Iran, the world’s biggest sponsor of sate terrorism and direct financial supporter of Hamas, because he knew they would do something to take the focus off his Impeachment hearings. This one hurts and fact checking shows it is completely bogus. Verdict: there was no Evil intent, just a giant level of Stupidity.

3. This last internet rumor might seem plausible at first sight. The story being circulated on moderate political sites is that Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz is secretly a mole working for the Democratic party, and that a numbered Swiss bank account, which has been linked to his wife, received a seven figure deposit immediately after his successful effort to unseat House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Some of the reposts of this story even mention a message attached to the wire transfer: Luv ya kid— from Nancy. Verdict: This is complete nonsense, there was no Evil intent, just you guessed it, Stupidity.

Since I don’t perceive Evil intent in any of the above episodes I would have to apply the label: GOOD ‘N STUPID to each. (With GOOD of course having the archaic meaning of plenty)

Thanks for your patience with today’s post. I’ll be firmly back on the track of Science once the shock of this new war is assimilated. Please forward this post to your friends, colleagues, and enemies. Feel free to take out your frustrations by pounding the like button—every like will be immediately translated into the dismissal of some woke University professor spouting anti-semitic hate, and the moral equivalence of Israel and Hamas.