The World's Viral Quagmire
Avoiding selective amnesia
This week’s post is going to cover a number of infectious disease topics, starting with COVID, which admittedly here in the US. is currently garnering less interest than Kamala Harris trying to explain AI. I previously alluded to the late stages of this Pandemic having parallels to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, with highly uneven levels of disease around the world. While the US has enjoyed 7 months of slowly declining symptomatic COVID disease, South Korea in once again in the midst of a major surge in activity. Daily new cases have been increasing there for many weeks. On July 11th they hit 31,000 for the first time since the winter wave on January 26, 2023 and the following day topped 34,000. Korean epidemiologists are now projecting this surge may peak at 50,000-60,000 cases per day—this seems to be quite a big deal for a virus which wasn’t copied on the memo ending the Pandemic. Summer surges are nothing new for COVID, and frankly I’m surprised we haven’t seen more of a bump here than our 10% increase in hospitalizations over the last two weeks, especially given the protracted heat wave in the southern US driving people indoors. Our weekly hospitalizations increased to over 7000 last week, a small absolute change from a low nadir, which might simply be some statistical noise. The more significant winter surge of COVID will be coming in a few months.
If you missed my March 17th discussion of a then preprint detailing the genetic underpinnings of why some people had asymptomatic COVID, and how their HLA structure allows their immune system to capitalize on prior exposure to the common cold corona viruses for protection against COVID; Eric Topol covers this now peer reviewed Nature paper in his Substack this week. It‘s quite elegant and important science, worth a second look, either in the primary source or in Topol’s “Ground Truths”. There is no substitute for the right set of genes.
A common allele of HLA is associated with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06331-x
Most of you will recognize my determination to make a plea for the WHO and sovereign governments around the world to stop using live polio vaccines. I don’t seem to have much of a chorus behind me chanting the refrain, but the imperative seems so crystal clear, that I challenge anyone to convince me that the current course of action—which is seemingly based on the argument that the logical and ethical thing to do is just too hard—is correct. This brings me to the following situation in Malawi. As you might be aware, last year Malawi had the first case of natural Polio in 30 years, and the first case on the entire continent of Africa in a decade. That case was imported from Pakistan, one of two countries in the world where the single remaining strain of natural Polio Virus-1 still occurs in a handful of individuals per year. The government of Malawi responded, according to WHO recommendations, by conducting a mass country wide vaccination drive with oral polio vaccine, which resulted in over 90% of the children being vaccinated. The results don’t appear to be encouraging. The Ministry of Health just announced that they are currently investigating 17 cases of suspected Polio. More importantly, they revealed that since the beginning of the year there have been 316 reported cases of AFP (acute flaccid paralysis, most often the result of Polio), which have apparently not been investigated, and were not known previously to the public or the WHO. Now what is your bet? Are these hundreds of paralyzed children suffering from natural Polio (with one imported case over the last 30 years, discovered almost a year ago) or are they the result of circulating oral vaccine derived polio (cOVDP), rushed out to over 90% of the children—when the vast number of cases of polio today around the world are caused by the oral vaccine. And why is the information being released just now that there have been 316 cases of AFP in the country during the year, without clarification whether they were caused by natural Polio or circulating vaccine derived polio (cOVDP)? The WHO normally jumps on cases of suspected polio, providing laboratory confirmation quickly if needed, in order to launch their mass oral vaccine responses. Does it seem like information was with-held and slow walked; information which might have generated distrust in the wisdom of the WHO approach, and thus some dreaded vaccine hesitancy? Sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. The WHO continues to insist that paralysis from the oral vaccine is “an extremely rare event”, which only happens when vaccine coverage overall in the population is too low. My response to that is bollux—greater than 90% of Malawi children are “vaccinated”, but are are not necessarily immune. In a prior post (What is Wrong in the Vaccine World) I reviewed the solid scientific data that children in the third world have very suboptimal responses to the oral polio vaccine. Rumors that I have accepted the position of Campaign Director for RFK Jr. are more bollux, but even in this Post Truth World, there is still room for facts and logic, as long as you remain flexible in your thinking, and willing to question the widely held scientific “truth”.
Let’s check in with Avian Influenza A as it continues its march through the mammals. I had previously discussed the risk if the current pandemic Avian Influenza H5N1 were to infect domestic dogs, putting infinitely many more humans in contact with the virus. Looks like I had the right idea but the wrong domestic pet. There is an outbreak of H5N1 disease in cats in Poland which has been going on for over a month. This is the same H5N1 clade 2.3.4.46 which has infected a wide range of mammalian species, killing huge numbers of marine mammals. Epidemiologic studies are underway in Poland, but so far it seems the virus is causing severe and fatal disease in some felines. There is no data yet on how many cats might be subject to asymptomatic or mild disease, thus acting as a reservoir for possible transmission to humans. So far the Polish government has released data that 24 out of 46 cats showing clinical symptoms of the disease were positive for H5N1 on autopsy.
Beyond the unpleasant implications of Avian Influenza infecting our pets, if you are a cat lover the following situation in Cypress is cause for major concern. Cypress has been home to a huge feline population for many years. Often referred to as the “Island of Cats”, local estimates put the number of cats close to the human population of 1.2 million. Over the last few months thousands of cats there have died from a feline corona virus called Feline Infectious Peritonitis Virus (FIP). Initial media reports suggested as many as 300,000 cats had died, but like much of what you hear from the media that appears to be wildly incorrect. A recent update from the head of the Cypriot national veterinary association puts the death toll at closer to 10,000. None-the-less, a local feline veterinary medicine specialist in Cypress has described the situation, as something completely without precedent in memory or recorded history. The mass die off of cats began in the capital city of Nicosia in late January and spread throughout the country. This is a virus which is harmless to humans, and found in a benign form in almost all cats. It appears that a mutation occurs which allows the virus, previously living quietly in the cat’s intestine, to become virulent and spread throughout the body. Based on some experimental evidence, the degree of transmissibility of the mutant virus had been thought to be very low, but the current situation suggests that perhaps a newly mutated form of the virus has acquired a much greater ability to spread from cat to cat. I suspect at this point we are all alert to the consequences of random viral mutations, and also to the fact that such events have the potential to travel widely and quickly. Luckily cats are easier to quarantine than humans, and they don’t purchase plane tickets—boats however, are a different matter.
I’m sure some of you saw the story last week regarding China’s continued lying about their COVID deaths, which was picked up by a few news outlets in the US. Likely as a result of an error, one Chinese province published their cremation data for the first quarter of 2023, before quickly removing it from their online statistics. The Chinese government used to routinely publish this information for years, until they abruptly ordered a halt, just as they were relaxing COVID restrictions. In December 2022, over a 2 week period the CCP ludicrously reported zero COVID deaths. The briefly visible cremation data (a surrogate for all cause mortality) spiked 73% from prior years, and epidemiologists from England quickly calculated that would equate to a national increase in excess deaths of well over 1 million. When the Chinese lie so consistently about anything that makes the State look bad in any conceivable way, one has to ask why anyone would believe a single statement they make—whether it be about Taiwan, what really transpired in the Wuhan Lab, or if they actually designed the SARS2 virus to go easy on their great friends the Jews. This logically applies to blindly accepting the veracity of Chinese scientists as well—cancellation in the totalitarian regime of China is quite a bit stiffer than having your Twitter account locked, and no longer being invited to Upper West Side parties.
That brings me to the final topic today which is the concept of Gell-Mann amnesia. The term was coined by author Michael Creighton (who you might remember had a strong background in science). It has to do with the psychologic effect of forgetting how unreliable a source of information has been. When asked why he named the concept after the great polymath, physicist Creighton said the following:
“I refer to it by this name because I once discussed it with Murray Gell-Mann, and by dropping a famous name, I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect than it would otherwise have,”
Which is obviously why I am dropping two famous names here. Gell-Mann amnesia is easily summed up by the following scenario. You are reading the newspaper, some online news-site, blog or whatever, about a topic which you have fairly extensive knowledge of, and you realize that the information being conveyed is full of serious errors, illogical conclusions or even the intentional dis-information. You turn the page (the same day or a week later) and begin reading in the same source an article about a subject where you understand that you have no particular knowledge or expertise—and, forgetting completely that this source has just handed you total BS on another topic, you accept what is written as gospel. The smartest and most highly educated of us can fall into this trap whether you’re reading the New York Times, the Wyoming Right Range Gazette or a Kanye West podcast. One subject where we all have a lifetime of experience and knowledge is the realm of human motivations, behaviors and dissembling. It’s an excellent framework to use to maintain your flexible thinking and avoid the famous name amnesia.
Next month I plan to go over the looming fall vaccination schedule, including the new RSV vaccine if that is germane to your age bracket. I think Dengue, the fastest growing “tropical” disease in the world also deserves another look.
If the news cycle seems too bizarre to be true, that’s because it is. This week alone I had to revise my CV to remove my credentials as official White House Dog Trainer. It looks like my time as Under Secretary of Keeping Track of Secret Documents will have to be scrubbed as well. One position I won’t be applying for soon is White House Press Secretary. Stress is a real killer. If you enjoy these posts and find them informative, send them along to to your friends, unless they happen to work for the FBI or the DOJ—I’ve got enough trouble right now trying to make the dog trainer schtick disappear. After you are done hitting the like button, don’t forget the button below for Commander. Things were looking pretty good for the first dog, but now discovery of some suspicious stains in the Lincoln Bedroom have put his biting binge plea bargain underwater. 10% of donations here will go for Commander’s legal defense (90% for various administrative and entertainment costs to be handled by Hunter).
