Time for Summing Up-Just Don’t Count Too Closely
Non-human viruses can have a huge impact on humans
Last Friday was the 97th and final CDC Weekly COVID Data Tracker update—or as the tag line said, “Signing off”. As you probably know, the CDC’s monitoring of COVID is changing dramatically, transitioning from daily data reporting to weekly. Other details of the changes include that the CDC will now monitor weekly changes in hospitalizations, and only the percentage of all deaths due to COVID as abstracted from the national system of death certificate reporting. That system of death certificate data reporting hasn’t exactly ever been a model of efficiency or accuracy, but the CDC is reporting it has improved greatly over the course of the Pandemic. Sites reporting COVID data (hospitals, clinics, ERs, public testing and vaccination centers, hospital and other laboratories) will no longer be reporting a great deal of the information which was previously captured. Here is a short list of the some of the stuff we are no longer tracking. A complete list is available at MMWR.
Community levels of COVID infection and total numbers of infection
Percentage of positive tests
Weekly and aggregate death numbers
Number or percentage of hospitalized COVID patients in ICU or on ventilators
Number of children hospitalized, in ICU or on ventilators
No longer counting the actual number of US deaths from the worst Pandemic in a century, especially when hundreds are still dying every week, and this disease which first appeared 3/1/2 years ago is still the fourth leading cause of death seems a bit disrespectful to the historical record and the folks who are still dying. I guess we just round it off at 1.1 million and move on. The CDC will continue to use waste water COVID RNA levels as a measure of total disease burden, and variant surveillance from those sites around the country which are testing that. The CDC has previously recommended that vulnerable people take extra precautions (masks, avoiding crowded indoor sites, etc) when community levels of COVID are elevated—I’m not sure how they would know that now, but hey progress is progress.
Next I’m going to rehash some old territory because of a new twist. You might recall that very early in the controversy over the origin of the SARS2-COV19 virus four prominent scientists published a paper in Nature Medicine on March 2020 entitled, “Proximal Origins of the SARS2-COV19 virus”. (There is a large back story surrounding the origin of the paper itself which I won’t bore you with). The paper concluded that there was no tenable possibility that the virus was a laboratory construct and therefore MUST be of natural origin. At the time “Origins” appeared, I thought the authors had some interesting information and observations, but that they were vastly overstating their case, and it certainly did not rise to anything close to scientific proof. Despite this, the paper was seized upon by certain prominent voices as “proof” the virus could not have come from any lab. The media, and even some scientists, went much further attempting to silence any opposing argument, labeling those who felt that a laboratory origin was a credible possibility requiring thorough investigation as ‘conspiracy theorists’. Such behavior, which is blatantly antithetical to the scientific method, is today so often reflexive, tolerated and then glossed over, that it reminds me of science in the old Soviet Union—science in the service of the State narrative. This week the hacker group DRASTIC enters the story with the leaked manuscript of a Department of Defense internal paper, authored by scientists at DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) about two months after the “Origins”paper. These Defense Department scientists critiqued “Origins” in depth, point by point, with extensive references to published literature, demonstrating why claims that the virus could never have been the result of a lab accident were erroneous. The fact that this paper was never made public should not surprise us, the Defense Department isn’t in the habit of telling us everything or even a tiny fraction of what they are doing or thinking. And by the time this paper was produced the witch hunt for lab origin conspiracy theories was in full media swing, so it wouldn’t have been very likely the Defense Department would be keen to contradict the narrative being put forward by NIH and the Administration. This paper in no way attempts to prove that the virus originated in a laboratory, it simply was a rigorous demonstration that the folks who were screaming that the “Origins” paper was proof of natural descent were wrong. The paper is detailed and very much in the virology weeds, but if the specific arguments interest you, the link is below. DRASTIC by the way is an informal group of hackers who have sought to obtain and make public official government information related to the Pandemic, prior to Congress’ recent bilateral demand to have the Administration release the data. I’d be careful with link since I can’t guarantee the FBI and CIA won’t hound you for decades if you access it.
https://drasticresearch.files.wordpress.com/2023/05/an-argument-against-natural-covid-19-creation-copy-2.pdf
Last week we discussed the enormity of earth’s virome and how little we know about it. It’s natural that most people not involved in the field will think primarily about viruses which infect and sicken humans as the real problems. After the events of the last three years a lot more people are tuned into the tremendous concern for zoonotic viruses which might adapt and jump to humans, but there are animal and plant viruses which don’t infect us yet have a tremendous impact on human populations through the creation of food insecurity. Global food insecurity has been slowly rising since 2014, but was dramatically accelerated by the Pandemic, and it’s estimated by the UN that 830 million people were affected by hunger in 2021. It’s worth giving some thought to a few of those viruses which can make us miserable, or even kill us, without ever once commandeering a human ribosome.
African Swine Fever is one of the many viruses that the woke world hasn’t targeted for renaming, yet. Like Ebola, Lassa Fever, Marburg, Powasson, Crimean-Congo, Hendra, Nipah, Rift Valley, and many other viruses, the terribly denigrating name tells you at a glance where it came from originally and in this case, which animal suffers from it. This virus is distinct from an older disease, classic European Swine Fever and more deadly. The disease first appeared when Europeans brought pigs to Kenya in the early 1900’s. One of the reasons for introducing pigs was that the native cattle had been decimated by another viral disease Rinderpest. ASF is a highly contagious disease spreading like lightening through swine herds and highly lethal. When one or more pigs in a herd are infected the rest are usually culled and disposed. The disease spread throughout Africa in the 20th century and appeared first in Europe in Portugal in 1957. From there it spread to the Caribbean, much of Europe and then China and Southeast Asia, where it continues to spread into new areas of Indonesia and the Pacific islands. The resulting loss of countless millions of pigs has brought predictable shortages of pork and price increases in parts of the world where pork is a staple and major protein source. There is no treatment or vaccine available, so isolation of herds and hygienic animal husbandry methods are the only tools to fight this disease.
H1N5- has been previously discussed at length regarding its perceived risk for a spillover as a human pandemic virus. If that never happens, this virus has still has a dramatic impact on people. Who can forget strolling down the isles at Piggly Wiggly and eyeing $7/doz. eggs earlier this year, ditto chicken wings. There may have been multiple factors at play, but the destruction of many millions of hens just in the US alone was a major contributor. Below are just a couple of the many plant viruses which have a tremendous impact on economics and food production.
Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV): BBTV is a viral disease that affects banana plants. It is spread by aphids and can result in severe damage to banana crops. Infected plants exhibit stunted growth, deformed fruits, and reduced yield. BBTV has had a significant impact on banana production in various parts of the world, threatening food security and livelihoods in regions where bananas are a staple food crop.
Citrus Tristeza Virus (CTV): CTV is a viral disease that affects citrus trees. It is primarily transmitted by aphids. Infected trees exhibit a range of symptoms, including stunted growth, leaf yellowing, and reduced fruit quality and yield. CTV has caused significant losses in citrus production globally, affecting the availability and affordability of citrus fruits.
Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD): CMD is a viral disease that affects cassava plants, a crucial staple food crop in many developing countries. The disease is caused by various geminiviruses and is spread by whiteflies. Infected cassava plants show stunted growth, yellowing of leaves, and reduced root yield. CMD has caused substantial crop losses, threatening food security and livelihoods in regions heavily dependent on calories from cassava.
You might have noticed the list above lacks some of the scintillating wry style so characteristic of my writing—that’s because it was ChatGPT generated. It gave me this list of viruses I had never heard of, and was so much more interesting than the run of the mill virions I was going to illustrate my point with.
This was going to be the summing up section, that hind-sighting of the Pandemic where everybody’s a winner, but the last few weeks have seen so many authors and distinguished groups with public health and health policy expertise present their opinions that I couldn’t possibly have anything of real substance to contribute. Despite all the expert analysis that’s been presented, I have the unhappy feeling that there is a good possibility not much will go differently next time around. I do think it would be a positive if the majority of us come away with the understanding that what comes out of the mouths of Tucker Carlson, Jake Tapper or Rachel Maddow is not ever likely to be scientific, or any other truth. It seems possible that there might be a small light at the end of the Cancel Crowd tunnel, and a return to the time tested world where great minds since the Enlightenment have understood that Scientific Truth, and other civilization advancing knowledge, require the careful evaluation of opposing arguments. Perhaps we could start with college freshmen on their first day, “Here’s your trigger warning for the year, some of the ideas you encounter may scare you—do your best to stay calm and upright. Welcome to the first day of the real world.”
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